MUMBAI : Markets do not seem to be showing major concern over recent allegations against Adani Group, which is evident from the derivative positions rolled over at the end of the August contract series.
A position refers to outstanding short or long trade that is carried forward to next series. When significant number of shares are rolled over and prices increase, it signals bullish sentiment. If number of shares is high but prices fall, it shows bearish sentiment.
For the three stocks—Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, and Ambuja Cements—the number of shares rolled over rose a bit compared to the start of the August series, indicating some pessimism, as the stock prices fell. However, analysts said there is no panic among market participants, as the rise in rollovers were not substantial.
For instance, in AEL, which fell 3.7% on Thursday, the number of shares rolled over was 11.12 million against 10.9 million at the beginning of the August series. In Adani Ports, which fell 3%, the rollover similarly was higher at 40.74 million shares against 32.79 million shares and in Ambuja Cements, which corrected 3.5%, respective figures were 67.45 million against 64.82 million in the August series.
The fall in prices accompanied by higher rollovers in terms of shares implied that short sentiment was slightly more prevalent. But, this was not alarming, say analysts.
On Thursday, Financial Times and Guardian cited an OCCRP report that alleged insiders violated Sebi’s minimum shareholding norms via opaque offshore structures. Adani Group termed allegat-i-ons “recycled” and “meritless.”
Nine out of 10 Adani stocks corrected with group market cap falling by ₹35,210 crore. This fall in share valuations was accompanied by three Adani stocks listed on the NSE’s derivatives segment seeing a slightly higher number of shares being rolled over to the September series of contracts than the rollovers to the preceding or August series of contracts. The fourth stock ended in the green.
“What we take away from the rollovers is that the aggression of bulls and bears was tempered, for now at least,” said Kruti Shah, quant analyst, Equirus. “The stocks will react to news-flows, with bulls waiting at the sidelines until clarity emerges on the issue.”
The Supreme Court is yet to take up Sebi’s report that probed the allegations contained in the Hindenburg report that surfaced in late January. That report alleged price manipulation and accounting fraud against the ports to renewable energy conglomerate, which denied any wrongdoing. In May the SC directed Sebi to submit a report on the allegations which shaved as much as $100 bn off the market cap of Adani Group in its aftermath.
While the share prices have recovered since then, investors are awaiting SC’s ruling on the matter based on Sebi’s findings. Until then the shares could move sideways, according to Rajesh Palviya, derivatives head at Axis Securities.
On Friday, eight of the group’s 10 stocks ended in the green, with the combined market cap rising by ₹ 13272 crore. Adani Wilmar and Adani Total Gas were the only ones to end in the red.
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Updated: 03 Sep 2023, 11:04 PM IST
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