Having strongly advocated for going alone in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh at two meetings, called by the Congress high command over the last fortnight to gather suggestions for the forthcoming polls, the state’s Congress leaders have suddenly gone silent, maintaining that eventually it is the decision of the “party high command” that matters.
However, there is still a strong undercurrent among the state Congress leaders that for its revival in the state the party should go alone, and at least maintain a distance from the Samajwadi Party (SP).
Stepstart talked to the Congress leaders who want to repeat its 2009 success in the state and feel the party did not gain much from its 2017 alliance with the SP. They feel that at the grassroots, the state’s minorities are looking for an alternative to the SP, which the party should capitalise on by going alone. Aware of the discontent within the Congress ranks about their party, SP leaders say not only is such opinion within the Congress negligible, the “naysayers” would also have to accept and follow what their national leadership decides.
Several UP Congress leaders broadly agree with the SP camp’s opinion. “It’s too late now to voice any opinion against [the national alliance] as the party leadership has already taken the decision,” said a senior party leader talking about the July 18 meeting in Bengaluru, adding, “Jo sehmat nahi bhi hain woh bhi ab khamoshi se sehmat ho jayenge (Even those who don’t agree will now quietly come around).”
While the “unhappy” UP Congress leaders are not vocally airing their opinion, the situation is likely to put the party in a tough spot before the polls.
Asked why he was strongly advocating that the Congress should go alone in UP, and especially not to align with the SP, a veteran party leader explained, “While we have seen in 2017 that the SP can’t transfer many votes to us, its situation is even worse at present, as the minorities at the grassroots are looking for an alternative in the Lok Sabha . We get people coming to us, asking us to contest. But if we go into an alliance that does not have the BSP, the result would again be the same for us. Neither would the SP be able to transfer minority votes, nor does it have control over Yadav votes, except in a particular region. On the other hand, despite losing seats, the BSP still has control over a significant section of its voters, especially in western UP, though Mayawati is reluctant to be part of any alliance.”
A party leader explained that if Muslim and Pasi votes gravitate towards the Congress, while the party manages to retain its upper caste (especially Brahmin) votes, it could see a revival. But within an alliance with the SP, these voters, rather than coming to the Congress, would get scattered and benefit the BJP, the leader said.
“Alliances work when parties have a strong hold over their voters and are able to transfer them to others. That’s not the case here now,” explained a district Congress leader.
In recent decades, the Congress had seen one of its best performances in Uttar Pradesh in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, winning 21 seats out of 80 with 18.25% vote share. While the BJP had won only 10 seats, with 17.5% votes, BSP had won 20 seats with about 27% votes, and the SP had won 23 seats with about 23% vote share.
In the 2012 Assembly polls, the Congress was able to secure 11.65% votes with 28 seats, while its alliance partner the RLD won 9 seats. While the SP formed the government with 224 seats and 29% of the votes, the BSP got 80 seats and about 26% votes, with the BJP coming behind at 47 seats and 15% votes.
However, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress was reduced to two seats in the state, i.e. Amethi and Rae Bareli, with just 7.53% of the vote share. While the BSP had drawn a blank and the SP got just 5 seats, the BJP secured 71 seats with about 43% of the votes. In the 2017 Assembly polls, when the Congress contested, in alliance with the SP, on 114 of 403 seats in the state, its numbers came down to 7 (with 6.25% vote share), while the SP won 47 (with about 22% votes), as the BJP formed government with a huge majority.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress lost even the Gandhi family bastion of Amethi as it managed to retain just Rae Bareli, with a 6.3% vote share, while the BJP’s vote share increased to about 50 per cent. The SP was able to retain its 5 seats, with about 18% of the votes. The worst however came for the Congress in the 2022 Assembly elections, when its numbers fell to just two seats (and a vote share of 2.33%), despite contesting 399 out of the 403 seats at stake.
“Those advocating the alliance are saying that the party was anyway reduced to 2% when contesting alone in 2022. But it is wrong to compare Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, as the mindset of the voter is different for each. Moreover, 2022 changed things for the SP as well. We even saw Yadav candidates of the BJP defeat strong Yadav candidates of the SP on some seats. As far as Lok Sabha is concerned, we believe the Congress stood a better chance if we fielded strong candidates,” said a senior leader, who was part of one of the several party meetings in Lucknow in which the leaders had openly supported going solo.
There is a section in the party that is in favour of an alliance with the BSP, but others feel striking an alliance with Mayawati is an onerous task. “She certainly has other priorities and fears. So, rather than wasting time, we supported going alone. Though, it was just our opinion. The party high command will take the final decision,” said a leader.
Veteran SP leader Rajendra Chaudhary, when asked to comment on the state Congress leaders’ views about the SP, said, “Such views have no meaning. UP Congress is just a wing of the national party. They will follow what their leaders tell them, considering the national scenario. All of us, including Akhilesh Yadav ji, are uniting for a bigger cause, and Congress leaders would do what their senior leaders decide.”
Source: Indian Express
